The Academy Awards ceremony (The Oscars) is on Sunday, February 26, 2012. This was an email to a few friends but I’ll just leave this here: Coming in to the 2012 Oscars I have actually been able to see most of the films nominated so here are my official predictions:

1. Best Picture: The Artist
Why it will win: Hollywood is madly in love with itself, the film is set in Hollywood and presented a clever and well-edited (voiceless) tale that isnt too deep or depressing and it was ALL filmed in L.A. Remember Crash? Yes that turd would have never won if it was set in Chicago.
What I think should win: The Artist
Who was left off the list: Drive

2. Best Actor: George Clooney
Why it will win: this is straight politics. Clooney is one of the academy’s most reliable soldiers - always at events, never down talking the union or guild and he put on HIS best performance to date. However, Clooney may lose because Pitt is coming into the same exact situation and the career-achievement voting folks may syphon off votes like Ralph Nader and influence the race to give it to the more deserving Dujardin. Not to mention they know Clooney will keep making films regularly so they can get another shot at rewarding him
Who I think should win: Jean Dujardin (Artist). He had the most difficult role of the year and nailed it- problem is the man isn’t American (or at least pro American cinema) which, like his character in the movie, will hurt him.
Who was left out: Joseph Gordon Levitt (50/50)
Post Awards Redemption: I guess the Artist train was too strong to prevent the frenchy from taking the gold. Still Clooney seemed to be right in there.

3. Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Why she will win: this is by far the hardest call. I think steep wins out mainly because she has strong supporters and for all she has achieved- a third Oscar is warranted for best actress. 
Who should win: The cast of The Help- I say the cast because there were about 4 strong female leads in that film and though I do think one will land supporting actress it’s just a shame that there wasn’t a singular actress to take on the award. If they realize that they will give it to Viola Davis, who is nominated.

4. Best screenplay: Midnight in Paris (a movie about a screenwriter in Paris? Oh you said Woody Allen? Forget about it, Hugo)

5. Best Cinematography: Tree of Life (golf clap for a movie that should be called Best Cinematography).
Post Awards Redemption: I didn’t see Hugo but I need to now.

6. Best Director: it’s really The Artist versus the field. If artist doesn’t sweep the actor/picture/director awards it could easily go to any of the other films. I have my money on Artist.

7: Supporting Actor: what a pile of shit we have to choose from here. If Jonnah Hill wins he will be making Snow Dogs 3 in a matter of months. Whenever you just throw Kenneth Brannaughs worst work in 5 films in to a nomination because there is nothing better you might as well admit you are just getting people excited that the fat kid turned skinny may win. Apparently Sydow is the one who did the best in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close but no one saw that movie and as of late the best supporting award has turned in to the fan ballot of all-star games. Hill gets it.
Left off? The dog from The Artist (serious)
Post Awards Redemption: I forgot there were two men in their 80’s nominated… Hill had zero chance.

8. Best Supporting Actress: one of the ladies from The Help (chastain or spencer)

9. Best Music: The Artist likely wins this too but they want to reward Hugo and encourage NIN type influence on films so Dragon Tattoo are in the running

10. Best Editing: The Artist… Again.
Post Awards Redemption: Hugo… you ruined my night.

There you have it- thoughts, comments, reactions, rotten tomatoes? 

I feel good about these predictions but who knows, you can always get a Hellen Hunt curve ball every now and again