Rather than predict Hokie Basketball games, which have become a schmasmortion of misery, I will try and throw out some thoughts for tonight’s Academy Awards. I won’t talk about the obscure foreign/short film awards, nor the visual effects and art direction awards which will surely go to Benjamin Button, nor the music awards (give those to Slumdog Millionaire), nor the best supporting actress awards since I haven’t seen enough of the films (Cruz seems to be the lock anyway), and director I believe will go to Slumdog’s Danny Boyle. But for the big guns I have come up with my predictions… and my final answer is:

Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Someone other than Heath Ledger
Will Win: Heath Ledger

This will piss people off. I don’t care, the fact it actually pisses people off helps prove my point. Granted, the best supporting actor award often times will go to a colorful and comedic performance so its not the most coveted of Oscars to win (remember Cuba Gooding, Jr.?) but to say that Ledger was far-and-beyond the best performance of the year is simply ignorance rooted in too much posthumous hype and fanboy idolizing. The fact remains that Ledger DID put on a helluva performance, but it was in a role that really any hack could be the scene-stealing riot. Playing a depraved lunatic, scripted and directed meticulously, with great costume design and makeup did not require Ledger’s “magical” touch… you would have an equal sentiment when leaving that movie if it had been played by a currently living Ledger as you would with an Orlando Bloom or Adrien Brody. For some reason people watched what they believed was the actual deconstruction of Ledger himself and described his role as if it was Leaving Las Vegas or Midnight Cowboy but no, it was a Batman movie (but maybe the best Batman movie so who knows).

Best Acrtress
Should Win: Kate Winslet
Will Win: Kate Winslet

Kate Winslet has become one of those actresses that people exclaim “she hasn’t won one yet?” in surprise when viewing her IMDB awards page. She has been nominated now six times for supporting and lead roles and has yet to take away a golden statute. This year, she was naked in nearly half of the film in which she starred (The Reader) and grows old and weak by the end of the film. This is the kind of performance the Academy drools over and its due time to break this losing streak - even if they don’t like foreign actors.

Best Actor
Should Win: Sean Penn
Will Win: Mickey Rourke

I have not seen The Wrestler but apparently the entire film is driven by Rourke’s performance. After his Hollywood fallout the Academy will be sure to reward him with his first Oscar. Like Penn he is outspoken on George W. Bush and stands behind things the Academy likes (comebacks, difficult roles in low budget films, drug addictions) but because Rourke has not won an award yet I believe that the Academy will skip over Penn’s (possibly better) performance in favor of Rourke.

Best Picture
Should Win: Milk
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire

The crowds all love Slumdog, and though it is a well-done and entertaining film, it is not necessarily the BEST film of this year’s lot. However, among 4 other dry or near-depressing films it shines with its child actors and punchy soundtrack. The Academy wants people to enjoy watching the Oscars and this award will be combined with Ledger’s to make for a one-two punch in ratings.