Stinespring’s Great Adjustments
Though the good folks over at firebryanstinespring make covering this topic a daily routine, I just wanted to weigh in my thoughts on who I believe is the mot inept offensive coordinator in a major football program in the country.
While Bud Foster continues to place the Hokies defense among the top in the nation, Offensive Coordinator Bryan Stinespring has allowed the Hokies offense to sputter and in the last few seasons go in to a nosedive. VT will be only the second team with a 100+ ranked offense to make it to a BCS bowl since the inception of the BCS ten years ago. The only other team to make it? That would be last year’s VT squad.
Just look at the offense and defense rankings over the past several seasons (this graphic is credited to Beer Control Offense edit: maybe also Jason From Arlington and Tech Sideline):
With the exception of a slight improvement early on in his tenure (perhaps residual effects from a previous era), Stinespring has done nothing but stink up our offensive performance. But why is this? Here’s a thought and some data that may show that Stinespring’s worst problem is that he hasn’t tried to adapt his play calling and develop a good balance between the pass and run game based upon what talent we have on the field.
No one would argue that over the last 8 or so seasons we haven’t changed much of how we throw the ball and how we call plays and this is despite having a variety of different talents and abilities behind center. Comparing numbers season to season, it shows we have one of the nation’s most consistent averages over the past 8 seasons of of how many times we throw the ball to the tune of 279-339 times (with the final game of this season estimated based on 1/13 of the season thus far).
The ranges of other programs who have had great offensive success in their conference over the past 7 seasons didn’t follow such consistency. For example USC’s pass attempts range 360-494 and Texas has a range of 275-436 over that same period of time.
Edit: In case you were wondering about the total number of plays and how that can impact these ranges, know that most teams call roughly the same number of total plays season to season (giving or taking about 50 from the average). Drilling down the Hokies a bit more and analyzing the ratio of pass plays to the total number of plays and it shows that the Hokies put the ball in the air 30-40% of the time over Stinespring’s era. The Hokies pass attempt range and percentage of total plays gap is the narrowest of all the teams analyzed:
Now is this significant? Perhaps not - could just be a coincidental trend - but most programs vary their passing and rushing attempts based on the talent available and do not just stay the same course each year. It appears that Stinespring took a long look at tech’s last season before he took over and said “I’ll keep with that.” Granted every now and then we have a trick play (Marcus passing to Randall/Triple Reverse/The always astonishing Screen Pass) to keep people guessing but really you can expect to see one of only a handful of plays every time we throw the ball. Tracking the type of passing plays called would make this data even more juicy but the Hokies aren’t really that diverse in what they put out there — so simply knowing what ratio will come from an offense over the course of the game is a big advantage to opponents. And yes, consistency can be applauded if it works and if the talent fits, but our declining offensive ranking would show that this repetitive cycle clearly isn’t. Showing our opponent’s the same thing week after week and in the same dosage allows them to easily adapt and deconstruct or schemes.
Some of this consistency could be due to VT moving conferences, or perhaps the continuous shake up of who was to be our starting QB was - not giving any particular time for one to develop, or maybe we just having a reliable running ga,e built on a strong O-line, but I think it really shows a lack of adaption to the changes in quarterback abilities - a cornerstone of great offenses. It highlights the Hokies dependency to keep with the same (predicable) offense which is only getting worse as each year more teams understand how to stop us.
So what will our goal be next year? To not have a 100+ ranked offense? To not have the WORST offense in the nation and still make a major bowl game? I think its time to sign the petition and have a new goal for our team.
I’m going to link to your site now.
Thanks for the publicity.
Hokie Guru
firebyranstinespring.blogspot.com
BCO took that chart from me, by the way, and I took it from Jason from Arlington… get your facts straight lol.
that first graph of the efense vs offense since 1999 to 2008 was originally posted on TSL, then on FBS, and BCO took it from there and didn’t credit the source from TSL.
Who cares, all of these charts were created using a handful of easily accessible public data and basic Excel graphic functions. More props should go to Bill Gates than those tards at TSL.
Your last two charts don’t really show any compelling data other than USC and Texas have more overall offensive possessions than VT. Whoever made those charts was trying really hard to pull trends out of thin air. And we really shouldn’t flatter ourselves by comparing the VT O to those of Texas and Southern Cal. More like Toledo or New Mexico State (Yes our O is THAT bad).
On that note, Beamer needs to smell the fresh turd Stiney left him on his front lawn and fire that asshole. And Jon, please don’t turn dictailgate into another lame, whiney VT football blog. You’re better than that man…
Well Jeff I can do the same thing with a lot of teams but didn’t feel the need. Just to ramble off a spread of teams that actually vary their play calling with regards to the pass (meaning they vary more than 10%-20% season to season over the past 7 years when going to a bowl game):
So again what does it show? It shows WE DON’T ADAPT THE PLAY CALLING. Just about every other team has a balance between the run and pass to suit the talent on the field and we don’t unless you would call all of our last 5 quarterbacks from the exact some mold. You wouldn’t call this at least a bizarre trend in significant opposition to so many other successful teams? Stiney sucks at changing things and thats what a team MUST do to have a potent offense that can carry a team to a national championship.
And as for a “whiny Hokies blog”? Well what have you been reading all this time? All I do over here is b. & m. about the Hokies. You just don’t like graphs because you have to use them at work.
I think you’re looking way too deep into the numbers. You could more easily make the counter argument that VT’s offense is consistent and we recruit players that fit our system rather than trying to adjust the system around the players. For the most part we recruit good running backs (Oxendine, Stith, Suggs, Jones, Ore, Evans) and running QBs (Deshazo, Clark, Vick, Randall, Vick, Taylor). While your offense should adjust to highlight the strengths of the talent that you have, why would you make wholesale changes to a system that wins you games just because some scout thinks your QB has an NFL-caliber arm? Did Tom Osborne win back-to-back national titles by ditching the option? HELL NO! Consistency is a good thing if the system is sound. Teams are governed by offensive and defensive philosophies. You recruit and start talent based on those philosophies. You drill these philosophies into your players and never let them question it. Constantly changing direction with a bunch of 18-22 year olds won’t get you anywhere. Programs win you national titles, not players.
That being said there is something fundamentally wrong with VTs offense, and it has been that way for as long as I can remember. We can’t pass, and never have! Unless you have a very diverse running plan (e.g. Nebraska’s option in the mid 90s, or GT’s current offense) you won’t win a national title without some semblance of a passing attack. Beamer needs to fire Stiney and find someone who understands offense. If he’s not willing to do that, then he needs to retire and let Foster take the helm before we lose him. That’s right; I’ll say it again, so all of the aforementioned whiney Hokies bloggers can see my blasphemy. BEAMER NEEDS TO RETIRE RIGHT NOW!
And I guess I just predicted that GT will win a national title in the next 5-10 years as long as Paul Johnson stays as head coach…
Also, for comparitive purposes, you should probably looks at % passing plays rather than the whole number. The amount offensive snaps teams will get over a season varies greatly, especially if they don’t play the same number of games each year. Can you humor me and post the percentages when you get a chance?
Nice work. The numbers speak for themselves. Stinespring is the turd in the Tech punchbowl. VT has won ACC titles in spite of Stinespring, not b/c of him.
If Beamer doesn’t fire Stinespring this offseason, then it tells me that Beamer values his poker buddy’s (Stinespring) feelings more than competing for national titles and top 5 finishes.
Mainaman has the chart stealing down lol… he’s right… it’s been stolen from a number of sources lol… I don’t mind anyone taking charts because we did at FBS.
Dictailgate is on, Jeff Butt… we make no adjustments… however, we do adjust away from something WHEN IT IS FRICKING WORKING (E.G. JANUARY 1, 2008 GAME AGAINST KANSAS SHOULD RING A BELL)… hell, we have the most predictible offense in the United States… watch the Cincy game on January 1… 2 beers says the first play call is an “off tackle” run. Dictailgate is on…
Dictailgate, would you like to crosspost this at FBS? I can send you a guest blogger account. Let me know… e-mail me at hokie.guru@gmail.com
Dictailgate, would you
Jeff - after talking to you at lunch I agree that total plays are relevant so I looked back at the data and there is some variance over each season but does not change my conclusion. The Hokies call an average of 857 with the high and low being within +/- 80 plays a season and spreading that out over 13 games really makes it not as significant as could be imagined. I added another chart and paragraph to the post as a result.
Needless to say it’s been a slow week at work….I’m not saying our offense isn’t predictable. It certainly is. I’m just saying you’re using the wrong stats to show that it is predictable. You’re telling the right story with the wrong data.
Just looking at the raw number of run and pass plays doesn’t tell you enough detail to draw your conclusion. It matters what kind of run plays (between tackles, outside, draw, option?) or pass plays (playaction, shotgun, short vs long, screens, etc) you run, on what down you run them, the remaining yards for a 1st down, and even time left in the quarter/game. Essentially, you’re looking at layers statistical analysis with at least 4 different variables. It’s gonna take a lot more than counting rushing plays to make your data sing. However, for a good ballpark figure, you could just make a couple of different categories of plays (see my examples above) and see what percentage we run each year over year. I’d venture to guess that we run more QB draws and option plays when we have an athletic QB (taylor, vick) vs a pure passer (glennon, noel). That pokes a big hole in your argument that Stiney doesn’t adjust play calling to the strengths of his talent. He definitely does, but he’s still predictable as hell. It’s not what plays you run over the entire season, it’s when you run them during the game that counts. Consistency is good, predictability is bad. There is a difference.
Jeff - First off I NEVER claimed to have “cracked the safe” of our offense nor do I think I completely exposed the play calling tactics of Stinespring. This data is meant solely as a tip of the iceberg. Ideally I would drill down and count each type of play that is called but there’s no way I will spend that much time just to please your needs.
Secondly, I think knowing that the Hokies mix a constant number of run and pass plays every game, every season WITH SUCH PREDICTABILITY is a detriment to the team. As an opposing team’s defensive coordinator would you not WANT to know how many pass plays and running plays your opponent would almost certainly be calling that day? If you say it would be of no help then I won’t be convincing you with any of the data I have already gone through. I know you say the kind of play is the real data that matters but simply consider the fact the Hokies pass plays are hardly novel (how often have you said “that’s something new” while watching a game?) and we know from years of watching the team that we see the same tired plays again and again - their are about as many different plays in the Hokies playbook as one would find in NES Tecmo Bowl. So yes, tracking the KINDS of plays which would make this data even more juicy but the Hokies aren’t really that diverse in what they put out there — so simply knowing what ratio will come from a team over the course of the game is a big advantage. And yes, consistency can be applauded IF IT WORKS and if the talent fits. The Hokies offense is not the Joe Gibbs ‘91 Redskins Run, Run, Pass success story- they stink up the few plays we do have so to say they are doing something right simply by their repetition is poor logic.
You say our offense is terrible and we should compare our stats to a team like New Mexico State, and I say as a team playing in a BCS bowl game we should DEMAND more and looking at 10 teams from the AP poll is not at all an unreasonable place to start.
If you really feel this passionately about the subject why not try writing your own post for once rather than trolling up the message boards from the sideline - you’ve had a DT login since ‘05.
We should not be comparing our offense to New Mexico State at all… we’re in a BCS conference, for heaven’s sake… we are not a mid-major
You really have to compare apples to apples.
Let’s get real here. Comparing our offense to USC or Texas is a joke. Our O isn’t ranked in the top 100 nationally and is dead last in the ACC. Yes, we should demand more from our offense, but you gotta run before you can walk…
Per my previous assertion, our offense is actually less consistent than OSU, USC and Oklahoma over the last 5 years on a % run vs pass play breakdown. The real stat is our whopping imbalance towards the run (64% over the past 5 years and 70% this season!). The defense knows we’re running 2 of every 3 plays….PREDICTABLE. The best offenses are generally rush between 50 - 60 % of the time, so we need to get better balance before we contend of national titles again…I’m afraid that won’t happen under Beamer, so get used to being ranked in the later half of the top 25 until he retires…
typo: you gotta walk before you can run
Beer kills braincells